Skip to content

Your Chase clinch scenarios for Saturday’s regular season finale

Sep 2, 2014, 1:30 PM EDT

Irwin Tools Night Race - Practice Getty Images

The final two Chase Grid spots will be on the line in Saturday’s Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond International Raceway.

At the front of that battle are the group of four drivers that can still make it on points alone – 15th-place Ryan Newman, 16th-place Greg Biffle, 17th-place Clint Bowyer, and 18th-place Kyle Larson.

But there’s also another group of 15 drivers within the Top 30 in NASCAR Sprint Cup points that can crash the Chase party in the only way they can.

Win.

However, out of all those hopefuls, only one driver can enter the Commonwealth of Virginia in charge of his own destiny, and that’s Newman (+42 over the cutoff).

His scenario is simple: Finish 18th or better on Saturday night, and he’s in the show. It bears noting that Newman has earned three Top-10s in his last four starts at Richmond (he finished eighth there in the spring).

For Biffle, Bowyer, and Larson, however, things are a bit more complex.

Should there be a repeat winner, or if winless No. 14 seed Kenseth or Newman win, Biffle clinches with a finish of 22nd or better.

But if there is a new winner that isn’t Kenseth or Newman, then Biffle has to out-point Newman by 19 points and beat both Bowyer and Larson – the latter two drivers having an opportunity if Biffle has a poor run.

Biffle’s record at Richmond has not been strong, as he’s only earned one Top-10 finish there since 2007. However, he’s been on a solid run as of late with Top-10 finishes in the last five races. Something will have to give.

As noted yesterday, Bowyer’s a two-time winner at Richmond, so he’ll be looking to come off the truck fast. This past spring, though, he finished dead last there after his right wheel well caught on fire before the halfway point.

In that race, Bowyer also dumped Larson, the polesitter, on the opening lap. Larson recovered to finish 16th in a solid drive from the back. If he can avoid trouble, he can be a factor on Saturday night.

Then there are those aforementioned 15 drivers who must have a win on Saturday to make the Chase – a group that includes Paul Menard, Austin Dillon, Jamie McMurray, Brian Vickers, Marcos Ambrose, Casey Mears, Martin Truex Jr., Tony Stewart, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Danica Patrick, Justin Allgaier, Michael Annett, David Gilliland, David Ragan, and Cole Whitt.

Latest Posts
  1. NHRA: Jack Beckman (54 races), Larry Morgan (120 races) snap lengthy winless streaks in 4-Wide Nationals

    Mar 29, 2015, 10:00 PM EDT

    nhra four-wide nationals

    Jack Beckman (Funny Car) and Larry Morgan (Pro Stock) broke lengthy winless streaks in Sunday’s finals of the 4-Wide Nationals in Concord, N.C.

  2. Montoya’s evolution evident after statement victory in St. Pete

    Mar 29, 2015, 8:40 PM EDT

    JPMSTPwin2 AP

    The year-on-year evolution of JPM showcases a driver still getting even better.

  3. Jeans and Ice Cream: Will Power’s brother live tweets IndyCar season opener

    Mar 29, 2015, 8:15 PM EDT

    Will Power, Will Power,

    Will Power’s brother brings the jokes while live tweeting Grand Prix of St. Petersburg.

  4. Power dominates another St. Pete race from pole, but reflective post-race

    Mar 29, 2015, 7:53 PM EDT

    WillSTPwin AP

    Close but no cigar, but still a very good day for Will Power in the IndyCar opener at St. Petersburg.

  5. IndyCar: Tony Kanaan breaks up Penske’s quartet with third place finish

    Mar 29, 2015, 7:27 PM EDT

    Tony Kanaan Tony Kanaan

    Tony Kanaan earns second podium in a row while thwarting potential sweep by Penske.

  6. Montoya ekes out win in St. Petersburg season opener

    Mar 29, 2015, 5:57 PM EDT

    JPMSTPwin AP

    Juan Pablo Montoya emerges up front after beating teammate Will Power on pit stops, and then holds off a final challenge.

  7. Will Power, debris dominate halfway through Grand Prix of St. Petersburg

    Mar 29, 2015, 5:14 PM EDT

    Will Power, Will Power,

    Will Power led a caution filled Grand Prix of St. Petersburg after 55 laps.

  8. Indy Lights: Ed Jones doubles up in St. Petersburg

    Mar 29, 2015, 2:23 PM EDT

    Photo: Indy Lights Photo: Indy Lights

    Ed Jones wins again in St. Petersburg, to complete an Indy Lights weekend sweep.

  9. What to watch for: IndyCar at St. Petersburg

    Mar 29, 2015, 2:00 PM EDT

    W2W4stp AP

    IndyCar is racing today, at long last. Here’s what to watch for.

  10. Malaysian Grand Prix signs three-year contract extension

    Mar 29, 2015, 1:00 PM EDT

    F1 Grand Prix of Malaysia Getty Images

    F1 will continue to visit the Sepang International Circuit until 2018 after a deal was signed on Sunday.

  11. Rahal leads St. Petersburg afternoon warmup

    Mar 29, 2015, 12:52 PM EDT

    Photo: INDYCAR Photo: INDYCAR

    Graham Rahal breaks up the Penske juggernaut and leads IndyCar warmup at St. Petersburg.

  12. McLaren upbeat in spite of double retirement in Malaysia

    Mar 29, 2015, 12:00 PM EDT

    Fernando Alonso AP

    Alonso and Button both sidelined by problems with the Honda power unit in Malaysia.

  13. Perez, Hulkenberg and Maldonado hit with penalty points

    Mar 29, 2015, 11:00 AM EDT

    Hulkenberg 293 Getty Images

    All three drivers sanctioned by the stewards for misdemeanors in today’s race.

  14. Ricciardo felt helpless en route to P10 finish in Malaysia

    Mar 29, 2015, 10:00 AM EDT

    Ricciardo 293 Getty Images

    Red Bull endures a miserable day in Malaysia, scoring just three points in total.

  15. Manor thrilled as Roberto Merhi finishes Malaysian GP

    Mar 29, 2015, 9:00 AM EDT

    F1 Grand Prix of Malaysia - Practice Getty Images

    Simply finishing the race must go down as an incredible achievement for Manor.

  16. Confusion and strategy error costs Hamilton shot at race win (VIDEO)

    Mar 29, 2015, 8:00 AM EDT

    Hamilton 293d Getty Images

    Did a mistake in Q1 on Saturday cost Lewis Hamilton a chance to win the Malaysian Grand Prix?

  17. Verstappen becomes youngest points scorer in F1 history

    Mar 29, 2015, 7:15 AM EDT

    F1 Grand Prix of Malaysia Getty Images

    Breaking the record by over two years, Max Verstappen cemented his place in the F1 history books in Malaysia on Sunday.

  18. Arrivabene: Ferrari is back, but must keep focused (VIDEO)

    Mar 29, 2015, 6:30 AM EDT

    Sebastian Vettel AP

    Ferrari team principal oversees his first victory since taking the helm at Maranello.

  19. Rosberg tells Ferrari “game on!” after Vettel’s Malaysia win (VIDEO)

    Mar 29, 2015, 5:56 AM EDT

    F1 Grand Prix of Malaysia Getty Images

    German driver didn’t expect his challenge to Ferrari in Australia to be taken up so quickly.

  20. Hamilton: Ferrari simply too fast for Mercedes in Malaysia

    Mar 29, 2015, 5:36 AM EDT

    AUTO-PRIX-MAS-F1 Getty Images

    British driver humble in defeat after losing out to Vettel and Ferrari in Malaysia.